The identity of the next leader of the Conservative party could not be more important for the future of the Right – but not in the way Tories think. Get it right, and they have some chance of reviving their potentially fatally damaged brand. Get it wrong, and they may never return to power.
I have not written about this to date because it has felt almost irrelevant. Who cares who is in charge of a party that has just lost two thirds of its MPs and is totally discredited? After 14 years of policy failure and a betrayal on immigration that has changed our country for ever, even the most die hard Conservatives admit their party faces an existential crisis. Each and every day, the terrifying consequences of their abject failure to protect our borders and control immigration become more evident. The Tories will be blamed for this forever - and deservedly so.
Against this backdrop, I have struggled to get excited by the early stages of the contest to become captain of the shipwreck. However, it does matter.
Why? Because it will determine whether, at the next election, millions of voters who despair at what is happening to our country and want a true right-of-centre government to grip the crisis, are once again split between the Conservatives and Reform UK – leaving power in the hands of the Left.
If a week is a long time in politics, five years is a lifetime. Of course things can change. With a truly inspirational new leader, untarnished by association with the disasters of the Cameron/May/Johnson/Sunak era, it is just possible to imagine the Conservative party attracting a large number of votes next time round – though it is still a stretch to see the party winning. The question is whether the new Tory leader can stop Reform UK continuing to gather momentum.
Here’s the inside track on the candidate Reform most fears – and who Nigel Farage could work with.